Argentine Beef, CUSMA Reviews and Record Prices: What 2026 US Trade Moves Mean for Canadian Cattle

Short answer: Canadian cattle and beef that qualify under CUSMA still enter the US without the new tariffs. But in 2026 the US moved to bring in more cheap lean beef. It raised Argentina's tariff-rate quota from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons and paused tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef. The US also declined to extend CUSMA for another 16 years, so the deal now goes through annual reviews. For Canadian producers, access to the US is stable for now but less certain in the long run.

About three-quarters of Canada's beef exports go to the US, so US trade policy matters for every Western Canadian operation. Here's what changed in 2026 and what it means for prices.

Are Canadian cattle and beef tariffed by the US?

Not right now. In August 2026, Ag Proud reported that Canadian cattle and beef "are still moving into the U.S. without new tariffs" under the same treatment they had before July 1 (Ag Proud). The exemption applies to cattle and beef that qualify under CUSMA (called USMCA in the US).

The stakes are high. Dennis Laycraft of the Canadian Cattle Association has said a 10% tariff would cost about $40,000 per load (Manitoba Co-operator).

What happened in the CUSMA 2026 joint review?

The US declined to extend CUSMA for another 16 years. That means:

• The agreement now goes through annual reviews, possibly until 2036.
• A 10-year countdown toward possible expiry has started.
• The three countries can still agree to extend at any time. Withdrawing requires six months' notice.

As of August, Washington hadn't published any cattle-specific proposal. Economist Al Mussell expects the uncertainty to show up first in investment decisions, like feedlot expansion, packing capacity and herd growth, rather than in day-to-day cattle prices.

Why is the US importing more Argentine and Brazilian beef?

The US herd is at its smallest in decades, and retail beef prices are at record highs. To bring prices down, the US administration:

• Raised Argentina's tariff-rate quota from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons for 2026, in February. Through April, US imports of Argentine beef were 27,323 metric tons, up 90% from a year earlier (Meatingplace).
• Paused tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef for 90 days in August. The administration said it was meant to sell at a 25% discount to market. US cattle groups criticized the move (Farm Policy News).
• Said tariff-free beef would come from Brazil and Argentina, among others. Brazil shipped about US$1.5 billion of beef to the US in the first half of 2026, up 10%.

Most of this imported beef is frozen lean trim used for ground beef.

How do more US beef imports affect Canadian cattle prices?

The effect is mixed, and it depends on what you sell:

What you sell	Likely effect
Cull cows and bulls	Most exposed. Imported lean trim competes directly with cow beef. Cheaper lean can put a cap on cull cow prices.
Fed steers and heifers	Less exposed. Choice and Prime cuts don't compete with frozen lean trim. Choice rib prices were near records this fall.
Feeder cattle and calves	Indirect. Driven more by the tight US herd and Mexican feeder imports than by beef imports.

Canada is also importing more beef. Canadian beef imports from Argentina rose 221% in the first nine months of 2025 (Beef Magazine).

What is the US herd doing?

It's still close to the bottom of the cycle. USDA counted 28.5 million beef cows on July 1, 2026, a record low for July, and a projected 2026 calf crop of 32.5 million head, also a record low (AFBF). AFBF economist Bernt Nelson expects feeder supplies to stay "historically tight" through 2027. For Canadian producers, that means US packers and feedlots will keep wanting Canadian cattle.

Is Canada finding other markets?

Yes. Canada Beef has been working on markets in Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines and the UAE. China has also lifted its ban on Canadian beef. Before that ban started in late 2021, exports to China were worth about $200 million a year. These markets won't replace the US, but they give Canadian packers more options if US access gets harder.

What should Canadian producers do?

You can't control trade policy, but you can control how exposed you are:

• Know your cull cow value per head. If lean prices soften, it may make sense to market culls earlier or feed them up first. Track it with feed cost per head.
• Keep records buyers trust. Age verification, source and treatment history help you get into premium and export programs. See the ranch records buyers actually want.
• Use price insurance on feeders and fed cattle when volatility rises.
• Watch the trade news along with weekly Canfax prices. Read our fall 2026 market update.

The takeaway

Canadian cattle still enter the US tariff-free, and the tight US herd keeps demand strong. The risks have shifted to more imported lean beef and a CUSMA that is now reviewed every year instead of locked in. Operations that know their costs per head and keep clean animal records will have the most options if things change. CattleOS gives you that view by pen and by animal, without a pile of paperwork. Try it on your operation at cattleos.com.

Hashim Farooq is the CTO and co-founder of CattleOS. He worked at Cargill before co-founding CattleOS, which builds software for Western Canadian cattle producers. Trade figures come from the sources linked in this article as of November 2026.